Indians are highly perturbed with high interest rates prevailing in
the country. From corporates to individual loan subscribers, all are feeling
the heat of high interest rates.
Earlier all eyes were on the RBI to cut policy rates but even after it slashing the repo rate by 50 basis points (or .5 %) in this calendar year banks and other financial institutions were unable to
cut the lending rates significantly. Higher interest rates are resulting in piling NPAs (Non Performing Asset
or bad debt) besides lower NIMs (Net Interest Margin).
Why banks
are not slashing interest rates significantly?
Mere RBI slashing policy rates shall not enable banks to drop interest
rates significantly but for that deposit rates too need to be slashed. Deposit rates
refer to the interest payable on the deposits of the customers- time deposits (FD,
RD etc) or demand deposits (saving account etc).
Now the question becomes- why
banks are not reducing the deposit rates?
And the answer is-Sluggish growth in bank-deposits prevents banks from
cutting deposit rates.
Rising gold and appreciating real estate in the past few years made
investors to pull funds from banks to invest in gold and real-estate.Investments in the aforementioned assets being long term created the scarcity
of funds for banks and this scarcity of funds prevented banks from cutting deposit
rates.
With retail inflation rate hovering above 10 %, Real-Interest Rate from
debt instruments (any instrument on which interest is payable like FD, RD etc)
turned negative.
Real interest rate is nothing but the interest rate adjusted for inflation.For example, if your FD pays you 9 % interest per annum and inflation rate is 10% per annum, then your real interest return is – 1%.
This means you are not gaining from your investment but losing money on
it due to higher inflation.
Why Gold
and real estate gave fantastic returns?
Gold being the best hedge against the inflation, investors started
hoarding it. Global economic activities like US quantitative easing and similar money printing measures by European and Japanese economies
resulted in ample liquidity which when flew into real estate resulted in sky-rocketing
prices.
Is there
any remedy?
This scenario shall not change until inflation becomes benign i.e. lower
CPI inflation or
retail inflation. Besides this, there should be an improvement in
bank deposits, and this shall be possible when gold and real estate shall cease
to deliver lucrative returns.
Indian government too needs to do the needful to curb the spiralling inflation in India.
When inflation shall be tamed, RBI too shall proactively reduce the
policy rates and thus lending rates shall be reduced.
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